Polls Today: Early Voter Dynamics in the 2024 Election
Polls Today Reflect Early Voting Trends
Former President Donald Trump is leading his opponent Kamala Harris among early voters in the swing states, according to a new poll. The poll, conducted by Harvard University, HarrisX, and The Harris Poll between October 11 and 13, found that Trump has a narrow lead among early voters in the battleground states, with 48 percent of the vote to Harris' 47 percent.
The poll surveyed 3,145 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. It did not specify how many early voters were surveyed. Democrats typically vote earlier and by mail more than Republicans do. A recent poll by Gallup, published on October 9, found that 46 percent of Democrats planned on voting early, compared to 31 percent of Republicans.
Significance of Early Voter Trends
Early voters could be crucial to securing victory in the battleground states. Roughly 70 percent of the more than 150 million votes cast in 2020 were cast before Election Day — a huge increase from previous years that largely resulted from the COVID pandemic. The Harvard University poll indicated that Trump was leading among likely voters in battleground states, 49 percent to Harris' 47 percent.
However, Harris was leading among likely voters nationwide, with 49 percent to Trump's 47 percent. Notably, Trump leads among male voters, white voters, voters of Asian descent, and rural voters, while Harris leads among female voters, Black and Latino voters, as well as urban and suburban voters.
According to FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker, Harris is projected to win the popular vote in November, currently ahead of Trump nationally by 2.4 points. If she secures the toss-up states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's 2nd District, she could reach the necessary electoral threshold to win.
The forecasting models show Harris winning in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nebraska's 2nd District for a total of 276 Electoral College votes. Conversely, Trump's campaign is projected to win in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, providing him with 262 votes overall. However, RealClearPolitics reports contrasting forecasts, indicating potential paths for both candidates in various states.
This article was prepared using information from open sources in accordance with the principles of Ethical Policy. The editorial team is not responsible for absolute accuracy, as it relies on data from the sources referenced.