2024 Election: Shifts in Betting Odds Favor Trump Over Harris

2024 Election Odds Update

Former President Donald Trump's election victory odds have overtaken Vice President Kamala Harris' in RealClearPolitics' presidential betting average for the first time in nearly a month. According to RealClearPolitics' aggregation of bookmakers' odds, the Republican candidate was given a 49.4 percent chance of winning the White House, while his Democratic rival was behind, though only by a whisker, at 49.1 percent as of early Monday.

Debate Impact and Current Landscape

Harris overtook Trump in the RealClearPolitics betting average following last month's first – and possibly only – presidential debate between the pair. According to RealClearPolitics, Trump is ahead with the bookies Bovada and Polymarket, while Harris leads with Betfair, Betsson and Smarkets. The pair were tied with Bwin and PointsBet.

Polling Perspectives

The latest national polls paint a slightly different picture, however. According to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, Harris was leading by 2.6 points nationally as of early Monday, at 48.5 percent versus Trump's 45.9. The most recent update to Nate Silver's election poll averages on the Silver Bulletin blog also saw Harris slightly ahead at 49.3 percent, with Trump at 46.2 percent.

• RealClearPolling's aggregation had Harris ahead at 49.1 percent with Trump at 46.9 percent.
• Compared to standard election polls, gambling odds are highly reactive to news events.
• The race remains tight in key swing states.

As of early Monday, Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, while Harris leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada. Polls measure the popular vote, which a presidential contender can win but still lose the election if they fail to secure 270 out of the 538 Electoral College votes.