Betting Odds Show a Tight Race for the 2024 Election
Betting Odds Running Parallel to Polling
The betting odds for the 2024 election currently show the race to be one of the closest in recent history. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck in both odds and polling.
Current State of the Race
- Current polling has Harris with a slight lead.
- 538’s forecast model gives Harris a 55% chance of victory.
- RealClearPolitics' betting odds show the race as a draw, with both candidates at 49.3%.
Assessing the Accuracy of Betting Odds
Over the past 35 years, aggregates from Bookmakers Review indicate that betting odds have accurately predicted 77% of expected candidates. Historical data from the 11 presidential elections since 1980 suggest that only once did the winning candidate have worse odds than the losing candidate—namely in 2016.
Recent Trends in Betting
- Betting odds predicted Barack Obama’s victory in 2012.
- In the incredibly close 2000 election, odds successfully anticipated George W. Bush’s win.
- 1976 marks the last incorrect prediction when betting odds favored Jimmy Carter over Gerald Ford.
Future Predictions
As the campaign heats up, following the recent vice-presidential debate, Trump has overtaken Harris in the betting odds according to Betfair, leading to speculations about the next possible outcomes.
This article was prepared using information from open sources in accordance with the principles of Ethical Policy. The editorial team is not responsible for absolute accuracy, as it relies on data from the sources referenced.