Nate Silver's Election Forecast Highlights Swing State Dynamics

Nate Silver's Insights on Swing States

Nate Silver's latest election forecast shows two key swing states have shifted in former President Donald Trump's favor over the past week, although Vice President Kamal Harris remains the favorite to win in November.

Recent Polling Trends in Pennsylvania and Michigan

Trump received a string of positive polls across Pennsylvania and Michigan in the final days of September, the states that Silver says have the biggest chance of tipping the election results this fall. In Pennsylvania, the former president was found leading the race by 2.9 percentage points (51 percent to 48.1 percent) among likely voters in a survey conducted between September 20 and 25 by AtlasIntel. Similarly, in a poll conducted between September 26 and 29, Trump was up by 2 percentage points (48 percent to 45 percent) on Harris among likely voters in Pennsylvania.

In Michigan, a separate poll from AtlasIntel also handed Trump a win, finding him ahead by 3.4 percentage points (50.6 percent to 47.2 percent) among likely voters in a head-to-head race against Harris. Overall, Silver's forecast on Monday found that Trump improved by 0.7 percentage points in Pennsylvania and 0.4 percentage points in Michigan over the past week.

The Broader Picture for Harris

Harris still leads in both battleground states on average, although Silver noted that there is a clear gap between state polling and the vice president's overall lead across national polls. While Harris is up 3.2 points on Trump as of Monday, per Silver's tracking, she is only ahead by 1.2 points in Pennsylvania on average. Similarly, in Michigan, Harris is up by 1.8 points. Silver pointed out that the gap indicates potential volatility as voters prepare for the 2024 election.