2024 Election: How Prediction Markets Have Outperformed Polls
Thursday, 7 November 2024, 20:30
Examining Polling Errors in the 2024 Election
Election Day has come and gone, and millions are analyzing the data, pondering how accurate the polls were and how well they compared to prediction markets. Polling errors in 2024 often sway in one direction or another, with historical performance reflecting past discrepancies. In 2012, polls overestimated Republican margins by 2.4 points, while in 2020, Democrat margins were overestimated by 3.9 points according to Pew Research Center data.
Insights from the 2024 Election Results
- Experts maintain that polling averages were relatively accurate in Sun Belt states.
- For the third consecutive election cycle, there was an underestimation of Donald Trump's support.
- Current errors in 2024 appear less severe than in previous elections.
This article was prepared using information from open sources in accordance with the principles of Ethical Policy. The editorial team is not responsible for absolute accuracy, as it relies on data from the sources referenced.