World News: How China is Navigating Its Support for Myanmar's Junta in Civil Conflict

China's Backing of the Myanmar Junta

When an alliance led by three rebel armies seized swathes of territory near Myanmar's border with China from the military junta last October, Beijing looked the other way. A year on, rebel forces have ground down the junta, pushing the military out of vital borderlands and making inroads into the contested heart of Myanmar.

Shifting Tides in the Conflict

In response, China has sealed the border and shut off key imports to territory under rebel control, said a rebel leader and five border-area residents. This strategic move appears to be aimed at dissuading the alliance from further advances, including potentially attacking Mandalay. After initially backing the Three Brotherhood Alliance to confront rampant border crime, Beijing is increasingly alarmed at the junta’s rapid degeneration, which it still regards as a guarantor of regional stability. Analysts believe that the measures Beijing is enforcing against the rebels, such as blocking imports, have been pivotal, leading at least one group to reconsider their engagement in the conflict. A significant moment unfolded in August with the alliance's swift capture of the northeastern town of Lashio, marking a historic shift in military control within Myanmar.