Bitcoin Under Pressure from Trump-Harris Debate Uncertainty

Bitcoin Faces Uncertain Future Amid Trump-Harris Debate

Uncertainty surrounding Tuesday night's debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is impacting U.S. equities, which in turn is influencing the cryptocurrency market. The cryptocurrency market cap saw a modest 1.9% gain over the past day, yet major tokens, including bitcoin and ether, remain down for the week, with respective declines of 3% and 6%.

Market Reactions and Correlations

U.S. stocks wavered in early Tuesday trading, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.42%. QCP Capital analysts report that uncertainty in stock markets is affecting bitcoin, as its correlation to global equities nears a two-year high. “Macroeconomic uncertainty is currently dominating the cryptocurrency market,” noted analysts.

Derivatives Market Activity

There has been significant activity in the derivatives market, with investors anticipating increased volatility around tonight’s debate at 9 p.m. ET. Substantial buying of bitcoin options set to expire reveals expectations of a price move exceeding 3.3% by tomorrow’s expiry.

Key Policy Insights Expected

Market participants are keenly interested in Kamala Harris' economic policies, especially how they contrast with Trump’s positions. Analysts believe that potential positive comments on crypto from Harris could surprise the market, considering the past perception of bitcoin as the ‘Trump trade’.

Future Outlook for Bitcoin

QCP Capital maintains a structurally bullish outlook for the fourth quarter, recommending investors earn steady returns while preparing to capitalize on potential market gains. “We favor earning stable yield while gaining upside convexity exposure at current spot levels,” they said.