Treasury Yield Curve Signals Turning Point as 10-Year Yield Surpasses 2-Year Yield
The Treasury yield curve's 'moment of truth' is upon us, as the 10-year Treasury yield recently eclipsed its 2-year counterpart on Thursday morning, marking a return to positive territory on an intraday basis. Inversions of the yield curve have served as reliable harbingers of prior recessions, however, it is once the curve flips positive again that the countdown to a slowdown begins in earnest. The uncertainty surrounding whether the yield curve has lost its predictive prowess in the current cycle remains a major talking point.
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