Exxon Mobil's Prediction of Sustained Global Oil Demand Sparks Concerns of Supply Shock

Exxon Mobil's Demand Projection

ExxonMobil has projected that global oil demand will remain virtually unchanged, forecasting consumption at above 100 million barrels per day in the next 25 years. This prediction suggests that an energy transition may not significantly reduce the world's dependency on fossil fuels.

Risks of Supply Shortage

According to Exxon, failing to invest adequately in fossil fuel production could trigger a new energy crisis, with crude oil prices potentially quadrupling as supply fails to meet this demand. The forecast starkly contrasts predictions from BP and the International Energy Agency (IEA), which anticipate a decline in oil consumption.

The debate on energy transition

Exxon's forecast arrives during a heated discussion between fossil fuel producers and policymakers addressing climate change risks. Exxon maintains that oil is vital for advancing economies, particularly in developing regions, despite facing criticism for its role in climate issues.

Emissions and Growth Outlook

• Exxon predicts a 25% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 due to efficiency and new technologies.
• Production growth plans include expansions in various fields, highlighting continued industry confidence.

Environmental advocates argue this outlook represents a desperate plea for investment in a declining sector, emphasizing the material risks associated with new oil production.