Number of Job Seekers Surges: Latest Fed Survey Reveals Labor Market Trends

Job Seekers on the Rise

The number of job seekers in the Federal Reserve’s latest labor market survey has risen to its highest level since 2014. The U.S. central bank reported that the proportion of individuals seeking employment over the past four weeks jumped to 28.4 percent, up from 19.4 percent in July of last year. This rise in job seekers is most prominent among those over 45 years old, individuals lacking a college degree, and those earning below $60,000.

Declining Satisfaction with Pay and Benefits

• Overall job satisfaction has decreased markedly.
• Approval ratings on wage levels dropped by 3.2 percent.
• Non-wage benefits satisfaction fell by 8.6 percent.

Changing Labor Expectations

Interestingly, the survey indicates a reversal in the trends regarding the age at which individuals expect to retire. A notable 34.2 percent of respondents now expect to work past the age of 67, an increase from 32 percent the previous year.

Job Market Dynamics

Job switching remains prevalent, with a movement rate to new employers hitting 7.1 percent, the highest since the survey’s inception. This increased churn is notably driven by women changing jobs.

Economic Context

The economy appears to be at an inflection point following a series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of rate cuts looming. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell articulated concerns regarding dual risks of inflation and rising unemployment, evidenced by the latest Labor Department jobs report, which indicated a surge in unemployment to 4.3 percent.

The job market fluctuations combined with growing recession indicators such as the Sahm rule are causing apprehension in financial markets.