Goldman Sachs Predicts Moderate Job Growth and Flat Hourly Earnings for February Report
Wednesday, 6 March 2024, 20:43
Key Points:
- Payroll Growth Forecast: Anticipated slowdown to 215k in February, reflecting a return to more typical levels after January's unusual spike.
- Influence of Weather: February's job growth may benefit from mild weather conditions, slightly boosting figures.
- Average Hourly Earnings: Expected to be flat in February, potentially correcting for January's weather-influenced anomaly, with the year-on-year rate predicted to drop to 4.2%.
- Unemployment Rate Stability: Predicted to remain unchanged at 3.7%, indicating continued labor market strength.
Conclusion: Goldman Sachs anticipates the February jobs report to reflect a moderated but still robust labor market, with payroll growth slowing from January's highs but remaining solid. The prediction of flat average hourly earnings suggests a temporary weather-related distortion in January's data, with a consequent decrease in the annual wage growth rate. The steady unemployment rate underscores the ongoing resilience of the US labor market.
This article was prepared using information from open sources in accordance with the principles of Ethical Policy. The editorial team is not responsible for absolute accuracy, as it relies on data from the sources referenced.