Analysis of Changing Breakeven Employment Growth Rates by the San Francisco Fed

Monday, 8 July 2024, 17:00

The San Francisco Fed's report delves into the evolving dynamics of breakeven employment growth rates post-pandemic. Despite surpassing pre-pandemic estimates, unemployment rates remain stable, sparking discussions on the altered 'breakeven' threshold. In the short term, spikes in immigration and labor participation have pushed the current rate to 230,000 jobs monthly. However, the report suggests a persistent long-term breakeven rate of 70,000 to 90,000 jobs monthly.

Frbsf — Analysis of Changing Breakeven Employment Growth Rates by the San Francisco Fed

Breakeven Employment Growth Trends:

Short-term Shifts: Recent increases in immigration and labor force participation have inflated the breakeven employment growth rate.
Long-term Stability: Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-run breakeven employment growth rate remains consistent around 70,000 to 90,000 jobs per month.

Conclusion

The report highlights the impact of short-term factors on employment growth while emphasizing the enduring stability of the long-term breakeven rate.

This article was prepared using information from open sources in accordance with the principles of Ethical Policy. The editorial team is not responsible for absolute accuracy, as it relies on data from the sources referenced.

Conclusion

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