2023 Labour Shortage in Hong Kong Predicted to Reach 180,000 Amid Ageing Population Crisis

Hong Kong's labour shortage is expected to worsen and hit 180,000 by 2028 driven by a rapidly ageing population projected to account for almost one-third of the city's residents. The Labour and Welfare Bureau on Thursday also predicted skilled technical staff, such as escalator mechanics and construction workers, would make up more than one-third of the total shortage. The study, conducted in 2023, analysed 17 key sectors and gathered views from more than 1,000 industry players to determine the supply and demand of manpower in the coming five years.

The government predicted a 3.56 million manpower supply and 3.75 million demand in 2028, which would result in a 180,000 shortage, based on the assumption the economy would grow by 3.2 per cent each year. That marked a 260 per cent increase compared with the 50,000 shortage in 2023. “The ageing population is our biggest challenge,” Secretary for Labour and Welfare Chris Sun Yuk-han said. “The working population will shrink while the median age of workers will increase.” By 2028, more than two million, or 28 per cent of the population, would be elderly aged 65 or above.

The working population, aged between 15 and 64, will stand at 4.6 million, accounting for 63 per cent of the population. The median age will rise to 50.2 from 48.3 in 2023. But he noted that the number of people aged between 35 and 44 increased by 20,000 in 2023, the biggest increase over the past two decades. Sun attributed the net increase to the rigorous talent drive by the government since late 2022.

Other factors affecting the supply and demand of labour included the use of artificial intelligence and automation, the education level of the workforce, and local economic growth and restructuring. The 180,000 shortage included skilled technicians, service industry workers, professionals and managers, and manual labourers. About one-third, or 60,000, were skilled technicians, such as construction workers, escalator mechanics, and aircraft maintenance technicians.

Sun said the government would continue to import talent and labour to plug the gap, while calling on employers to explore different solutions to boost productivity and upskill their workers.