Can China Fill the Void Left by Trump’s ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ Stance at COP29?

United Arab Emirates and Brazil at COP29

The agenda at the United Nations’ COP29 climate summit has become more complicated with the re-election of Donald Trump, who made “Drill, baby, drill” an applause line on the campaign trail. The summit, which kicked off in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Monday, marks the first time in 15 years that global representatives will negotiate a new global climate finance target, detailing the support wealthy nations will provide to countries that need help to achieve their climate goals.

China's Emerging Role in Climate Leadership

As US participation falters, all eyes are on China, the world’s second-largest economy and biggest greenhouse-gas emitter. If the US abandons the global climate agenda, China is in a comfortable position to portray itself as the more responsible global power without any new commitments. This setting allows countries like the United Arab Emirates and Brazil to diversify from fossil fuels, shaping the climate discussion. With the decline in global emissions expected to slow under Trump, China’s updated NDCs must aim to reduce emissions by another 30% by 2035.

The Future of Global Climate Cooperation

China’s clean energy industries, which dominate the markets for solar panels, wind turbines, and EVs, lead the booming green economy worldwide, the biggest driver of global climate action. As the US edges away from climate leadership, there is an opportunity for EU-China climate engagement to fill this gap and keep global climate initiatives afloat.