Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump: Stock Market Trends Signal Election Outcome
Stock Market Trends and Presidential Elections
If history is any guide, one stock market gauge suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris will defeat former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race. In all but two elections since 1944, the party in the White House has retained power when the U.S. stock market advances before Election Day, particularly from the end of July to Halloween. This trend follows an election predictor devised by Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.
Historical Market Performance
- In 2020, the S&P 500 fell 0.04% during the July 31 to October 31 period, coinciding with Donald Trump's election loss to Joe Biden.
- This year, the S&P 500 rose 3.3% in the same timeframe, an encouraging sign for Harris.
Factors Influencing Presidential Races
While stock market performance can give insight, many other factors influence election outcomes. Wall Street can be misleading, with predictions often faltering. For instance, betting markets currently favor Trump, adding more twists to an already unpredictable race.
This article was prepared using information from open sources in accordance with the principles of Ethical Policy. The editorial team is not responsible for absolute accuracy, as it relies on data from the sources referenced.