National Retail Federation Forecasts Record Holiday Sales for 2024

Record 2024 Holiday Sales Forecasted

Holiday sales are poised to set new records in 2024, with the National Retail Federation (NRF) announcing a potential increase of up to 3.5% from 2023. The NRF's estimates suggest that holiday retail sales could total between $980 billion and $990 billion between November 1 and December 31, a noticeable rise from $955.6 billion in 2023.

Driving Factors Behind the Outlook

• The anticipated growth in consumer spending comes as inflation rates moderate.
• Recent interest rate cuts have reduced borrowing costs for consumers.
• The labor market remains robust, despite previous recession predictions.
• Wage growth has surpassed inflation, enhancing consumers' purchasing power.

Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO, remarked, “Overall, the economy has been in a good place this year. Consumers continue to show resilience and strength in their spending.”

Impact of Online Shopping and AI

As the online shopping boom persists, overall retail sales growth is expected to escalate. Online and non-store sales are anticipated to grow by 8% to 9% compared to last year, reaching $295.1 billion to $297.9 billion, up from $273.3 billion.

Shay emphasized that retailers will increasingly adopt artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance customer service and operational efficiency during the holiday season. New AI tools will support everything from direct engagement to streamlined internal processes.