Gold Daily Forecast: Analyzing the $2,620 Support Level

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) prices continue their six-day losing streak, trading around $2,621 with an intra-day low of $2,615. The recent downtrend is largely attributed to a strengthening U.S. dollar, which is hovering near a seven-week high.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Lower, Pressuring Gold

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, with a potential for a 50-basis-point reduction by year-end. However, mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials have kept investors cautious.

Economic Indicators

• New York Fed President John Williams hinted at a gradual lowering of rates as appropriate.
• Fed Governor Adriana Kugler emphasized that policy decisions remain data-dependent.

Impact of Strong Economic Data and Bond Yields

Adding to the downward pressure on gold, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains above 4%, signaling investor confidence in the broader economy. Boston Fed President Susan Collins remarked that while inflation is cooling, economic and labor markets are still robust.

Easing Geopolitical Tensions and Technical Selling

Moreover, reports suggest that Iran-backed Hezbollah might be open to a ceasefire, potentially reducing regional tensions and demand for gold as a safe-haven investment. The recent drop in gold can also be linked to technical selling after breaking below the key $2,630 support level.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains under pressure, hovering near $2,620. A break below this key support could trigger further declines, while resistance at $2,635 limits any upside potential.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading slightly lower at $2,621.62, down 0.01%, as the precious metal struggles to hold above the key $2,620 support level. On the 2-hour chart, the pivot point at $2,624.22 acts as a critical price marker. Immediate resistance stands at $2,635.46, while further resistance levels are at $2,644.57 and $2,652.90.

The 50-day EMA is positioned at $2,639.20, suggesting potential bearish pressure in the short term. Conversely, a break above $2,635 would indicate a bullish reversal. Immediate support rests at $2,615.20, with additional supports at $2,605.62 and $2,594.94. If prices fall below $2,620, selling momentum could accelerate, pushing gold lower.