Gold Price Forecast Q4 2024: Insights into Future Trends

Gold Price Forecast Q4 2024: Market Analysis and Projections

The gold market has surged to new record levels in 2024. The most significant movement occurred in Q3 2024, where the quarterly candle was the largest among all the year’s quarters. Geopolitical uncertainty and Fed rate cuts ahead of the US presidential election have weakened the US dollar, which are the primary factors behind this strong rally. This article presents the technical analysis of the gold market and the recent catalysts to understand price behavior and project the gold price movement in the final quarter of 2024.

Bullish Trends Push Gold Near to Projected Price Targets

The long-term chart shows a strong bullish momentum for the gold market, as illustrated in the quarterly chart below. It is observed that the price broke out of the bullish pennant in 2003 after consolidating within this pattern for nearly two decades. This breakout drove gold prices to hit record highs in 2011. Following this, gold prices entered a strong consolidation phase below the yearly pivot of $2,075. This yearly pivot was eventually broken to the upside after forming a cup-and-handle pattern below it.

• Interestingly, this yearly pivot became the neckline of the cup-and-handle formation.
• The cup-and-handle pattern and the breakout above $2,075 have propelled gold prices to record levels, reaching an all-time high of $2,685 in Q3 2024.

The year 2024 has been marked by strong quarterly candles, with the third quarter being the largest of the year. The chart also reveals that the initial breakout began in the last quarter of 2023, marking the start of this surge. The strong quarterly performance and the strong third-quarter close at record levels suggest that the last quarter of 2024 is likely to be interesting.

Gold Price Projection for Q4 2024

As discussed above, the gold market is trending higher and shows strong price gains during the third quarter of 2024. The seasonal chart below shows the price data for the past 10 years, and it found that October is usually either a price peak or consolidation month.

• The chart shows that 2023 and 2015 were the years when the gold market experienced significant price gains in October.
• However, all other years of the past decade exhibited price consolidation.

Another interesting observation is that September has been strong in 2024. Therefore, it is highly likely that if the gold objectives of $2,700-$3,000 are achieved in October, there might be a sharp and quick price correction in October or November, followed by a strong December.

Key Catalyst for Gold Surge in Q4 2024

The recent rally in gold has been driven by several key catalysts that have bolstered the metal’s appeal to investors. Firstly, expectations of further interest rate reductions by the Fed have played a significant role. With the Fed having already delivered a 50 bps cut in September 2024, the market anticipates additional easing, potentially up to 75 bps more by year-end.

• This dovish monetary policy stance weakens the yield on traditional assets like bonds, making non-yielding gold a more attractive investment.
• Furthermore, these rate cuts signal a softening economic outlook, which typically fuels demand for safe-haven assets.

In addition to monetary policy, geopolitical concerns support the gold rally. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with recent escalations in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas, has heightened global uncertainty. Such geopolitical risks drive investors towards safe-haven assets, as gold is traditionally a hedge against geopolitical instability and economic turmoil.

In summary, while a seasonal correction could occur in October or November, this could provide a buying opportunity for long-term investors. The outlook remains bullish, targeting levels between $2,700 and $3,000 in Q4 2024.