How Amazon Could Realistically Double Stock Value by 2030

Here's Exactly How Amazon Stock Could Double Again by 2030

Can the e-commerce and cloud services giant really deliver another 2x return in a relatively short period? Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) stock has more than doubled since the beginning of 2023. So far in the 21st century, it has doubled five times plus additional big gains.

1. Get some macroeconomic help

• Amazon can't double on its own. It needs some macroeconomic help. In particular, the chances that Amazon stock will double over the next six and a half years improve significantly if the U.S. avoids a prolonged economic recession.
• During the Great Recession, Amazon's stock plunged as much as 65%. A repeat of such a steep decline would definitely make it harder for shares of the e-commerce and cloud services giant to soar 100% or more by 2030.

2. Benefit from a massive AI tailwind

1. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy has said in the past that less than 10% of global IT spending is currently in the cloud but could grow to over 90% within the next 10 to 15 years. AI could help make Jassy's prediction come true -- and perhaps in a shorter period than he envisions.
2. Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the leading cloud services provider. It would almost certainly enjoy significant growth if AI sparks a surge in migration to the cloud. Of course, AWS has strong competition. However, Amazon is investing heavily in AI and appears to have a good overall AI strategy.

3. Conquer new markets

• Amazon had much greater ambitions. Books were just a start that helped it catapult into additional markets.
• Amazon's recent initiatives highlight some areas where it could be successful in the coming years. For example, the company has expanded into healthcare with Amazon Pharmacy and the acquisition of primary care provider One Medical.

Even if Amazon enjoys favorable macroeconomic trends, receives a boost from AI, and successfully expands into new markets, can its shares really double by 2030? I think it's quite possible.

I wouldn't bet the farm on Amazon delivering a 2x gain over the next six and a half years. However, I wouldn't bet against the stock achieving the feat either.