Australian Dollar Analysis: Impact of Upcoming PMIs on AUD/USD

Australian Private Sector PMIs in Focus

On Monday, September 23, flash private sector PMIs from Australia will bring attention to the AUD/USD pair and the RBA rate trajectory. The Services PMI, comprising over 70% of the economy, is crucial. Economists predict a slight uptick from 52.5 in August to 52.6 in September. Positive surprises may lower Q4 2024 rate cut expectations.

Economic Indicators and Their Implications

Subcomponents like employment and prices will be vital, with the services sector significantly influencing inflation metrics. Increases in job creation and input costs could bolster consumer spending, which may sustain inflationary pressures.

• Better-than-expected Services PMI numbers could propel AUD/USD towards $0.70.
• An unexpected drop may heighten odds of a Q4 RBA rate cut, potentially dragging AUD/USD below $0.67500.

Expert Views on the Australian Economy

Analyst insights reflect on the PMI trends. Judo Bank's Matthew De Pasquale notes ongoing input price pressures could hinder easing inflation within services.

US Economic Calendar

Later on Monday, US private sector PMIs will garner attention, given the US Services PMI's relevance, contributing almost 80% to its economy. A forecasted decline from 55.7 in August to 55.2 in September may invoke speculation for multiple Fed rate cuts.

Short-Term Forecast for AUD/USD

Near-term AUD/USD movements hinge on Services PMIs and RBA decisions. A dovish stance post PMI readings could see AUD/USD dip below $0.67500, while central bank guidance will be paramount.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Technically, AUD/USD remains above both 50-day and 200-day EMAs, suggesting bullish sentiment. A breach of $0.68390 could lead to further upside potential. Conversely, falling below $0.68006 opens doors for bears towards $0.67500.