Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Faces Key Test with Upcoming Jobs Data

Impact of the Australian Labor Market on AUD/USD

The Australian labor market is crucial for the RBA. Economists expect employment to increase by 25k in August, down from 58.2k in July, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.2%. A lower-than-expected employment rise could trigger speculation over a potential Q4 RBA rate cut, impacting consumer spending and inflation. This might push the AUD/USD below $0.67500. Conversely, stronger labor market data could delay a rate cut, pushing the currency pair toward $0.68500.

Expert Insights on Employment Trends

Callam Pickering, Asia Pacific Senior Economist at Indeed Australia, pointed out that 2.2% of Australian jobs were vacant in the June quarter. Although this figure shows some improvement, it is still above pre-pandemic levels, which signals that employment conditions remain steady, potentially impacting RBA policies to curtail inflation.

US Labor Market Insights

Attention will also turn toward US labor market data, with expectations of steady initial jobless claims at 230k. Surprising increases might suggest a November Fed rate cut, aiding the AUD/USD while declines could keep it under pressure.

Short-Term Forecast for AUD/USD

The commodities market will pay close attention to both Australian and US labor data. A robust Australian labor report could strengthen demand for the Aussie dollar, while rising US jobless claims may reinforce expectations for a Fed rate cut. It's important for investors to stay informed on labor market trends and central bank policies to optimize trading strategies.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD is currently above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating a bullish trend. A breakthrough at the $0.68006 resistance level may advance toward $0.68500, while a fall below $0.67500 could bring the $0.67050 support level into play.