Understanding the Seasonal Pattern of USD Weakening in April and Strengthening in May

Wednesday, 3 April 2024, 17:54

Société Générale highlights a consistent seasonal trend in the FX markets, with the US dollar typically declining in April and then experiencing a recovery in May. Historical data since 2004 shows this pattern occurring 65% of the time, emphasizing the significance of seasonal analysis in trading strategies. Investors can potentially leverage this trend to optimize their positions in the dollar index.
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Understanding the Seasonal Pattern of USD Weakening in April and Strengthening in May

Seasonal Influence on FX Markets

Société Générale notes a consistent seasonal pattern in FX markets, observing a trend where the US dollar tends to weaken in April and recover in May.

Historical USD Performance

Analysis of the past two decades reveals that the dollar index typically experiences a slight downturn in April, followed by a more substantial recovery in May.

Conclusion

The seasonal trend of the US dollar's performance, with a downturn in April and a stronger rebound in May, highlights the importance of considering seasonal factors in FX market analysis. Investors and traders might benefit from adjusting their strategies based on this historical pattern to capitalize on the expected movements of the dollar index during these months.


This article was prepared using information from open sources in accordance with the principles of Ethical Policy. The editorial team is not responsible for absolute accuracy, as it relies on data from the sources referenced.


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