Insights on Eurozone Flash CPI Data and Market Expectations

Wednesday, 3 April 2024, 05:17

Eurozone flash CPI data release is anticipated to impact market expectations for the upcoming ECB meeting. The article presents the expected HICP Flash YY and HICP Core YY figures, as well as the mixed bag of regional prints. Market analysts are uncertain about the potential surprises today's data may bring, as rate forecasts suggest the need for a significant deviation to alter market expectations. A break in the core YY below 3.0% could strengthen the case for a rate cut in June.
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Insights on Eurozone Flash CPI Data and Market Expectations

Insights on Eurozone Flash CPI Data

Eurozone flash CPI data release is anticipated to impact market expectations for the upcoming ECB meeting.

  1. Expected HICP Flash YY: 2.6% (prior 2.6%)
  2. Expected HICP Core YY: 3.0% (prior 3.1%)
HICP Flash YY and HICP Core YY figures are crucial in determining market sentiment. The regional prints show a mixed bag of results, with French and German numbers falling, while Italian and Spanish numbers rising. This uncertainty makes it difficult to predict the impact of today's data.

Market Expectations and Forecast Insights

Market analysts are uncertain about the potential surprises today's data may bring, as rate forecasts suggest the need for a significant deviation to alter market expectations. A hold for the next ECB meeting is currently priced at 80%, while a June cut is priced at 99%. This indicates that a substantial change in today's data would be required to shift market sentiment significantly.

If the core YY breaks below 3.0%, it could provide dovish policymakers at the ECB with more leverage in the upcoming deliberations.


This article was prepared using information from open sources in accordance with the principles of Ethical Policy. The editorial team is not responsible for absolute accuracy, as it relies on data from the sources referenced.


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