Manipulation Concerns in Polymarket for Trump vs. Harris Elections

Saturday, 7 September 2024, 16:12

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are at the center of a potential manipulation alert in the prediction market Polymarket. Recent claims suggest that a group attempted to influence the betting outcome for the U.S. presidential elections. Investigations from Dumpster DAO reveal elaborate strategies employed in this betting scheme.
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Manipulation Concerns in Polymarket for Trump vs. Harris Elections

Understanding the Manipulation Attempt

On September 6, Dumpster DAO uncovered what they termed a manipulation attempt in the prediction market centering on the Trump vs. Harris race. The investigation claims that a group, or perhaps a single entity, tried to sway the 'Presidential Election Winner' betting odds.

Details of the Manipulation

The targeted market was for speculating who would lead in the election outcomes. Reports indicate that more than $9 million in USDC was used to purchase shares for Kamala Harris while simultaneously selling shares for Donald Trump in hopes of an inflated Harris position.

Outcome of the Attempt

Despite the orchestrated efforts, the manipulation did not succeed, resulting in over $60,000 lost. As the market corrected, it became evident that Trump maintained a slight edge over Harris, with bet shares currently reflecting a near 50% win probability for Trump.

Significance in Prediction Markets

Polymarket has gained traction as a notable prediction market, allowing users to speculate on various outcomes, particularly in political arenas. While the use of regulated USDC ensures transparency in trading, this incident raises red flags regarding market integrity.


This article was prepared using information from open sources in accordance with the principles of Ethical Policy. The editorial team is not responsible for absolute accuracy, as it relies on data from the sources referenced.


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