Oil Prices Forecast: Analyzing China’s Policies and Middle East Tensions

Market Overview

Oil prices edged higher on Friday, poised for a weekly gain of over 1%, amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and upcoming Gaza ceasefire talks. Traders remain cautious, awaiting Israel’s response to Iran’s October 1 missile attack, which could disrupt oil supplies if Tehran’s infrastructure is targeted.

While U.S.-led ceasefire discussions may ease tensions, the focus remains on the broader conflict in Lebanon. Meanwhile, investors are also watching China’s stimulus policies, though analysts suggest these will have minimal impact on oil demand. Stable oil prices support steady outlooks for gold, silver, and copper forecasts, driven by geopolitical and macroeconomic factors.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices are currently trading at $2.24, down 6.41% on the day. The chart shows a clear bearish sentiment, with the price hovering below key resistance at $2.55, which is also the pivot point. If prices fail to break above this level, we could see continued downside pressure, with immediate support sitting at $2.45 and lower levels at $2.37 and $2.29.

However, if NG manages to climb above $2.55, it could push towards the next resistance targets of $2.60 and $2.66. Technical indicators like the 50-day EMA at $2.42 and the 200-day EMA at $2.48 suggest limited upside unless a strong bullish breakout occurs.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI is trading around $70.33, showing a modest gain of 0.09%. It’s at a critical juncture, currently retesting the previously broken upward trendline near $70.65, which acts as a key pivot point. If prices can break above $70.65, we could see further upside with immediate resistance at $71.50, followed by $72.26 and $72.94.

However, if it fails to hold above the pivot, the bearish trend could resume, with immediate support at $69.75 and deeper levels around $68.93 and $68.15. The 50-day EMA at $70.73 and the 200-day EMA at $71.31 are close by, reinforcing the importance of these levels for the next market move.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent is trading at $74.55, just slightly down by 0.08%. Right now, the price is testing a critical pivot point at $74.75. If it can break above that level, there’s room for further gains, with immediate resistance sitting at $76.28 and more significant hurdles at $77.11 and $78.07.

However, if it fails to clear the $74.75 mark, we could see a slide towards immediate support at $73.98, with additional downside targets at $73.22 and $72.47. The 50-day EMA at $74.92 and the 200-day EMA at $75.22 are providing short-term resistance, reinforcing the bearish outlook unless prices can push higher.